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白糖产业风险管理日报-20250528

Report Summary 1. Core View - The current market is in the new Brazilian sugarcane crushing season, with the main focus on the expected increase in Brazilian production. Indian sugar production has decreased and Thai production has increased. After the restrictions on domestic syrup and premixes and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has few variables [4]. 2. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Strategy - Price Forecast: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.04% and a historical percentile of 3.1% over 3 years [3]. - Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can sell SR2507 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 5900 - 5950 range and sell SR507C6000 call options at a 75% ratio in the 10 - 20 range [3]. - Procurement Management: For those with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy SR2507 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 5750 - 5800 range and sell SR509P5600 put options at a 75% ratio in the 30 - 40 range [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The market is mainly debating the current and future sugar production in Brazil. Indian production decline and Thai production increase are established facts. After restrictions on domestic syrup and premixes and domestic sugar crushing completion, the situation is relatively stable. The recent market is trading on the expected increase in Brazilian production [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - India's sugar production has declined this season, but the expected ending inventory of 480 - 500 million tons can meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [6]. - China has suspended the import of Thai syrup and premixes [6]. - In the second half of April in Brazil's central - southern region, the sugarcane crushing volume was 17.725 million tons, a 49.35% year - on - year decrease, sugar production was 856,000 tons, a 53.79% year - on - year decrease, and ethanol production decreased by 35.37% to 985 million liters. The sugar - cane ratio was 45.82% compared to 44.22% in the previous season. Rainfall in late April led to lower - than - expected crushing [6]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Heavy rainfall in Guangxi since May 9 has alleviated the previous drought [7]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts a 5% increase in Brazil's 25/26 sugar production to 46 million tons [7]. - Thailand's 24/25 sugar production is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [7]. 3.5 Market Data - Sales Data: As of the end of April, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 7.2446 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4981 million tons (26.07%), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 65.22% (the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons), 7.49 percentage points faster than the same period last year [9]. - Basis Data: On May 28, 2025, the basis between different regions and futures contracts showed various changes. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 481, with a daily increase of 34 and a weekly increase of 59 [10]. - Futures Price and Spread Data: On May 28, 2025, the closing prices of different sugar futures contracts showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, SR01 closed at 5674, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly decline of 0.94% [11]. - Spot Price and Regional Spread Data: On May 28, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions also changed. For example, the price in Nanning was 6155, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5 [12]. - Import Price Data: On May 28, 2025, the import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar decreased. For example, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar was 4680, with a daily decrease of 16 and a weekly decrease of 106 [13].