YINGJIA DISTILLERY(SH:603198) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-28 15:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 73.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.46%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 25.89 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.45% [1] - The company experienced a decline in performance in Q1 2025, with revenue dropping by 12.35% year-on-year to 20.47 billion yuan [1] - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 46.35%, slightly up from 45.46% in 2023 [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor business revenue reached 70.02 billion yuan, with high-end liquor (including the cave series) contributing 57.13 billion yuan, up 13.76% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 6.53% to 12.90 billion yuan [2] - For Q1 2025, the liquor business revenue was 19.62 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year, with high-end liquor revenue at 17.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.57%, and ordinary liquor revenue plummeting by 32.09% to 2.42 billion yuan [2] Regional Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from the domestic market was 50.93 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 19.09 billion yuan, a modest increase of 1.31% [3] - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 16.33 billion yuan, down 7.71% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province fell significantly by 29.74% to 3.29 billion yuan [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 improved to 73.94%, with a net profit margin of 35.26%, reflecting an increase of 2.57 and 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [4] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin further increased to 76.49%, with a net profit margin of 40.47%, indicating a continued improvement in profitability [4] Financial Forecasts - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 74.4 billion yuan, 79.9 billion yuan, and 85.1 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 85.6 billion yuan and 97.3 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 26.3 billion yuan, 28.7 billion yuan, and 31.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 12.8X, 11.7X, and 10.9X, respectively [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is reported at 33.664 billion yuan, with a current price of 42.08 yuan per share [7]