PDD-拼多多：对平台生态系统进行投资，用户留存受影响，ST收益受冲击-20250528

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings, with a target price adjusted to $134.5, reflecting a 21% decrease from the previous target price [1][4]. Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported a revenue growth of 10.2% year-on-year for Q1 2025, reaching RMB 95.7 billion, which was 6% below Bloomberg consensus expectations. This shortfall was primarily due to a 12% miss in transaction service fees, despite a 2% beat in online marketing services and other revenues [1][2]. - Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 45% year-on-year to RMB 16.9 billion, significantly below market expectations by 39%. This decline was attributed to higher-than-expected sales and marketing expenses aimed at matching the intensity of subsidies from other e-commerce platforms [1][3]. - The company has upgraded its platform ecosystem enhancement plan to improve supply quality and diversity, which is expected to impact profitability growth in the short term. The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down by 25-31% due to these factors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, PDD's online marketing services and other revenues grew by 14.8% year-on-year to RMB 48.7 billion, exceeding market expectations by 2%. However, transaction service revenue only grew by 5.8% year-on-year to RMB 47 billion, missing market expectations by 12% [2][3]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for Q1 2025 contracted to 57.2%, down from 62.3% in Q1 2024, primarily due to the underperformance of commission income, which typically has a higher gross margin [3][12]. Valuation Adjustments - The target price has been adjusted to$ 134.5 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, which includes a revised valuation of the main app at $83.1, unchanged valuation for Duoduo at$ 1.9, and Temu at $20.5, along with a net cash valuation of$ 29.0 [4][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down by 12.4% to RMB 434.6 billion, with adjusted net profit forecasts also lowered significantly. The adjusted net profit for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 94.9 billion, reflecting a decrease of 30.6% from previous estimates [13][16].