JGJC(SZ:000799) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-29 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to face significant pressure in its performance during the adjustment period, with projected revenues and net profits for 2024 at 1.423 billion and 12.49 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 49.70% and 97.72% [1][4]. - The company is anticipated to focus its resources on its core market in 2025, which may lead to a breakthrough in performance [2]. - The report indicates a decline in gross margin and net margin due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin products, particularly the "Neican" series [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 1.423 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 49.70%. The net profit is expected to be 12.49 million, down 97.72% [5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decrease to 71.37%, a drop of 6.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is projected at 0.88%, down 18.48 percentage points [3]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is forecasted at 22.01 million, significantly lower than previous years [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with projections of 1.252 billion, representing a 12.03% decline from 2024, and net profit is expected to rise to 112.39 million, a significant increase of 799.64% [4][5]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 122X, 84X, and 64X respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decrease in sales volume and price for the company's products in 2024, with the liquor sales volume and price dropping by 32.98% and 25.17% respectively [2]. - The number of distributors decreased by 438 to 1,336, with the average distributor scale declining by 33.41% to 1.0588 million per distributor, contributing to the revenue decline [2].