Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure due to increased investments and tariff impacts, with total revenue of 957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, which was below market expectations [1][8] - Online marketing service revenue grew to 487 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in GMV and advertising monetization in the domestic market [1][8] - The decline in transaction service revenue, which reached 470 billion yuan with a growth rate of 6%, was attributed to commission reductions and tariff impacts on TEMU's GMV growth [1][8] - The company's gross margin decreased to 57.2%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the full burden of shipping costs in the western regions and a structural decline in high-margin commission revenue [2][9] - Non-GAAP operating profit fell to 183 billion yuan, a decrease of 36% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 19.1% [2][9] - The company launched a 100 billion yuan support plan in April, which may continue to pressure profitability in the near to medium term [3][10] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4329 billion yuan, 4994 billion yuan, and 5622 billion yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment of 10%, 16%, and 17% respectively [3][16] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period are 841 billion yuan, 1076 billion yuan, and 1259 billion yuan, with adjustments of -35%, -34%, and -32% respectively [3][16] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected at 12x, 9x, and 8x for 2025-2027 [3][16] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a non-GAAP net profit margin of 18% for the latest quarter, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced interest income [2][9] - The sales expense ratio reached 34.9%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the company's relative disadvantage in national subsidies compared to other self-operated e-commerce platforms [2][9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19% for 2025, down from 32.1% in 2023 [4][19]
拼多多（PDD）：2025Q1财报点评：投入加大叠加关税影响，Q1业绩承压