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英伟达FY26Q1业绩点评:BLACKWELL进展顺利,指引符合预期
国金证券·2025-05-29 07:20

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported FY26Q1 revenue of 44.062billion,ayearonyearincreaseof6944.062 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%. The GAAP gross margin was 60.5%, impacted by a 4.5 billion inventory impairment loss related to H20. Excluding this loss, the Non-GAAP gross margin was 71.3% [2]. - The company expects FY26Q2 revenue to be around 45billion(±245 billion (±2%), accounting for an 8 billion revenue loss due to H20's ban on sales. The projected GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins for FY26Q2 are 71.8% and 72.0% (±0.5%) respectively [2]. - The data center business continues to grow rapidly, driven by increased demand for inference computing power and the rollout of Blackwell GPUs. FY26Q1 data center revenue reached 39.112billion,up7339.112 billion, up 73% year-on-year, with computing chip revenue at 34.155 billion, up 76% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gaming business generated 3.763billioninFY26Q1revenue,a423.763 billion in FY26Q1 revenue, a 42% year-on-year increase, primarily due to customers shifting to purchase RTX5090 and RTX6000 series graphics cards amid limited supply of data center GPUs [3]. - The company anticipates a total impact of 15 billion from H20 for the year, including 4.5billioninQ1inventoryimpairment,4.5 billion in Q1 inventory impairment, 2.5 billion in Q1 revenue loss, and 8billioninQ2revenueloss[3].FinancialProjectionsThecompanyisexpectedtoachieveGAAPnetprofitsof8 billion in Q2 revenue loss [3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve GAAP net profits of 108.208 billion, 135.340billion,and135.340 billion, and 152.762 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 48.5%, 25.1%, and 12.9% [4]. - Revenue projections for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are 195.320billion,195.320 billion, 249.578 billion, and $282.771 billion, with growth rates of 49.7%, 27.8%, and 13.3% respectively [9].