PDH(SH:600048) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-29 09:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has successfully completed a directed convertible bond issuance of 8.5 billion yuan, enhancing its financial strength with a first-year coupon rate of only 2.20%, indicating strong investor confidence in the bond's value and the real estate sector's recovery [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved sales of 70.4 billion yuan with a contract collection rate of 112%, while its cash reserves reached 148.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [6] - The company remains the industry leader in sales despite a slight decline, with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters in 2024, down 24.7% year-on-year, and a sales amount of 323 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to benefit from an accelerated market clearing in the real estate sector, leading to improved concentration and profitability, with projected net profits of 5.13 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 6.25 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 280.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, and a net profit of 5.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% increase from the previous year [5][7] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 14.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.5% [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to be 18.9 for 2025 and 17.1 for 2026, indicating a relatively stable valuation [5][6]