Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD) [3][10][22] Core Views - Pinduoduo's Q1 2025 revenue was Rmb95.7 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, but below market expectations of Rmb101.6 billion. Operating profit fell 38% year-over-year to Rmb16.1 billion, and non-GAAP net profit dropped 45% year-over-year to Rmb16.9 billion, missing consensus forecasts [4][5] - The company has launched a "Billion Yuan Merchant Support" program, aiming to invest over Rmb100 billion in the platform ecosystem over the next three years to support small and medium-sized businesses amid economic uncertainties. This initiative is expected to pressure short-term profits but is seen as a strategic move for long-term growth [5][6][10] - Pinduoduo is focusing on enhancing its platform ecosystem and technology investments, which are crucial for high-quality development. The gross profit for Q1 2025 was Rmb54.7 billion, with a gross margin of 57.2%, down 5.1 percentage points year-over-year. Operating expenses increased to 40.4% of revenue, driven by higher selling expenses [6][8][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: Rmb247.639 billion - 2024: Rmb393.836 billion - 2025E: Rmb408.400 billion - 2026E: Rmb439.304 billion - 2027E: Rmb501.347 billion - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been revised down to: - 2025E: Rmb101.143 billion - 2026E: Rmb138.565 billion - 2027E: Rmb168.937 billion [2][10][13] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Pinduoduo's market share is nearing its upper limit in the short term, leading to a strategic decision to sacrifice short-term profits for long-term ecosystem development. The company is also expanding its overseas business and adapting to tariff risks, indicating potential for market share improvement in the long run [5][10][9]
拼多多（PDD）：千亿扶持打造共赢生态，供给改革抵御外部冲击