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水井坊(600779):25Q1扣非利润表现亮眼,25年期待改革见效
600779SCSF(600779) 天风证券·2025-05-29 12:45

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its non-net profit for Q1 2025, with a projected increase of 23.63% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence through the expansion of its store network and new sales channels, which has shown promising results [3] - The company anticipates that reforms will yield positive results in 2025, despite a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to industry adjustments [5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 5.217 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.32% [6] - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 82.76%, slightly down from the previous year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 25.71% [4] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 is projected at 959 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.74% [1] Product Performance Summary - The company's mid-range product, Zhenniang No. 8, is a key driver of revenue growth, although the growth rate for mid-range products is under pressure due to high base effects [2] - In 2024, the revenue from high-end and mid-range products was 4.764 billion yuan and 264 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.99% and 29.14% [2] Market Strategy Summary - The company has successfully increased its dealer network, with a total of 61 dealers in 2024, although the average scale of dealers has decreased by 7.02% [3] - The company opened 10,000 new stores in 2024, focusing on key markets to expand its market share [3] Financial Projections Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 5.484 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.416 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.58% [6] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.49X, 14.18X, and 13.15X, respectively [5]