Group 1 - The report indicates that the demand for express delivery services is expected to maintain a strong growth momentum, with a projected business volume growth of over 20% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, driven by structural changes in demand such as small parcelization and new consumption models like live e-commerce and community group buying [3][19][37] - Price competition is intensifying, with a year-on-year decline in single ticket revenue of 8.3% in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a heightened focus on market share among leading companies. However, the report anticipates that the competition will remain within a healthy range due to regulatory measures against malicious competition [4][19][53] - The report highlights that leading express delivery companies, such as Zhongtong and Shunfeng, are expected to maintain their competitive edge due to their asset barriers, cash reserves, and profitability, which provide resilience in the face of price competition [4][25][80] Group 2 - The report notes that the express delivery industry has experienced slower-than-expected concentration in recent years, with the CR8 index remaining stable between 84-85.3 from early 2022 to the end of 2024, indicating a gradual shift of market share towards leading companies [15][66] - The report emphasizes that the demand in lower-tier markets, particularly in central and western regions, is rapidly increasing, supported by government initiatives and the expansion of e-commerce channels [46][49] - The report outlines various government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, which are expected to further boost the express delivery sector, including consumption vouchers and support for new consumption models [47][48][50] Group 3 - The report discusses the differentiation in performance among express delivery companies in Q1 2025, with Shunfeng achieving over 10% growth due to its cost reduction capabilities, while Zhongtong's profitability improved despite a decline in single ticket gross margin [25][26][80] - The report indicates that Zhongtong is shifting its focus from profit maximization to market share growth in 2025, highlighting the importance of price competition as a means to capture market share [51][52] - The report concludes that the long-term outlook for the express delivery industry remains positive, with leading companies expected to continue gaining market share and profitability due to their competitive advantages [66][75]
Presentation：需求韧性持续、价格波动加剧
Haitong Securities International·2025-05-29 13:01