Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-05-29 12:57Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The near - term contradictions of caustic soda are limited. The supply - side maintenance and strong near - term demand support the spot. But in the medium term, the market logic may shift to the resumption of maintenance and the third - quarter production expectations. Demand has an increase but is insufficient to reverse the situation, and the acceptance of high - price caustic soda by downstream industries such as non - aluminum is limited. The upside of caustic soda is limited, and it may wait for signs of weakness on the spot side [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 47.9% [3] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation, short caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 2600 - 2650; sell call options (SH509C2600) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3] Procurement Management - For low regular inventory, to prevent price increases in procurement, buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 2350 - 2400; sell put options (SH509P2400) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [3] Core Contradiction - In the short term, the fundamentals are supported, there is no obvious pressure on the spot, and there is no obvious downward driving force. In the long - term, there is production pressure, which limits the price ceiling. The short - term is generally treated as a sideways trend [4] 利多解读 - In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure; there are still many maintenance plans in June; the profit of the alumina on the demand side has improved, with a resumption of production expectation; the non - aluminum export rush has improved [4] 利空解读 - In the long - term, there is an oversupply pressure, with a concentrated production expectation on the supply side, and the demand increment is insufficient to support a market reversal [5] Caustic Soda Disk Price/Month Spread | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 2025 - 05 - 28 | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Caustic Soda 05 Contract | 2428 | 2408 | 20 | 0.83% | | Caustic Soda 09 Contract | 2479 | 2456 | 23 | 0.94% | | Caustic Soda 01 Contract | 2380 | 2363 | 17 | 0.72% | | Month Spread (5 - 9) | - 51 | - 48 | - 3 | | | Month Spread (9 - 1) | 99 | 93 | 6 | | | Month Spread (1 - 5) | - 48 | - 45 | - 3 | | | 05 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 384.5 | 404.5 | - 20 | | | 09 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 333.5 | 356.5 | - 23 | | [6] Liquid Caustic Soda/Flake Caustic Soda Spot Situation - Most prices of liquid caustic soda (32% and 50%) and flake caustic soda in different regions remained unchanged on May 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, except for a 1.2% increase in the 32% liquid caustic soda price of Shandong Lutai and a 0.7% increase in the flake caustic soda price in the Southwest region [7] Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spread - Most caustic soda grade/regional spreads remained unchanged on May 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, except for a 10 - point increase in the 50% caustic soda spread between Guangdong and Shandong [8]