Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-05-29 12:57Report Overview - Report Name: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Risk Management Daily - Date: May 29, 2025 - Author: Shou Jialu (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0020569) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Price Range Forecast - Glass price range (monthly): 900 - 1200, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.81%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 46.6% [2] - Soda ash price range (monthly): 1100 - 1350, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.00%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 30.3% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, sell FG2509 futures at a 50% ratio when the price reaches 1100 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Sell FG509 C1200 call options at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 20 - 30 to collect premiums, reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Soda Ash - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, sell SA2509 futures at a 50% ratio when the price reaches 1300 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Sell SA509 C1300 call options at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums, reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] 3. Core Contradictions Glass - Supply chain faces over - supply pressure; in the off - season of demand with weak expectations, but no new cold - repair expectations have been triggered [3] Soda Ash - There is a consensus on over - supply expectations, and new production capacity is expected in the long - term; costs are continuously decreasing, and there are still profits in the supply chain [3] 4. Bullish Factors Glass - Supply remains in a low - level fluctuation state; the futures price is approaching the full - supply - chain loss state; low prices lead to cold - repair expectation disturbances [3] Soda Ash - Manufacturer maintenance from May to June is gradually being realized; exports exceed expectations, alleviating domestic over - supply pressure [3] 5. Bearish Factors Glass - There are still ignition expectations on the supply side, and no large - scale cold - repair expectations; actual demand is weak; overall social inventory is high, and the off - season is approaching [3] Soda Ash - New production capacity continues to be put into operation; social inventory is at an absolute historical high; there are still profits in the supply chain [3] 6. View Summaries Glass - If the low price persists, focus on the increase in cold - repair expectations. Although the glass valuation is relatively low, the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [3] Soda Ash - The futures market is under continuous pressure. New production capacity may gradually release output, and maintenance fails to provide short - term support. With cost reduction and remaining supply - chain profits, it should be treated bearishly. Further price cuts from soda ash manufacturers are needed to drive the price down [3] 7. Price and Spread Data Glass - On May 29, 2025, the 05 - contract price was 1101 (down 13 from the previous day, - 1.17%); the 09 - contract price was 985 (down 24, - 2.38%); the 01 - contract price was 1049 (down 19, - 1.78%) [3][5] - The 5 - 9 month - spread was 116 (up 11 from the previous day); the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 64 (down 5); the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 52 (down 6) [5] - The 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 50 (up 8.4); in Hubei, it was 19 (up 73); the 09 - contract basis in Shahe was 165.6 (up 19.4); in Hubei, it was 55 (up 4) [5] - The average spot price of glass in Shahe was 1150.6 (down 4.6 from the previous day) [6] Soda Ash - On May 29, 2025, the 05 - contract price was 1253 (down 7 from the previous day, - 0.56%); the 09 - contract price was 1203 (down 12, - 0.99%); the 01 - contract price was 1201 (down 6, - 0.5%) [7] - The 5 - 9 month - spread was 50 (up 5 from the previous day, 11.11%); the 9 - 1 month - spread was 2 (down 6, - 75%); the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 52 (up 1, - 1.89%) [7] - The heavy - alkali basis in Shahe was 52 (up 12); in Qinghai, it was - 103 (up 12) [7] - The heavy - alkali market price in Shahe on May 29 was 1243 (down 12 from the previous day) [7]