HP(US:HPQ) Goldman Sachs·2025-05-30 02:50Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to HP Inc. (HPQ) with a 12-month target price of $27, indicating a downside potential of 4.7% from the current price of $28.34 [11][15]. Core Insights - HPQ's F2Q25 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.71 missed Goldman Sachs (GS) estimates of $0.82 and consensus of $0.80, while revenue of $13.2 billion was largely in line with estimates [2][3]. - The company lowered its guidance for F2025 EPS to $3.00-$3.30 from a previous range of $3.45-$3.75, reflecting moderated demand and the impact of tariffs [2][7]. - The outlook for the PC industry has been adjusted to low single-digit percentage (LSD%) unit growth year-over-year, down from mid-single-digit percentage (MSD%) growth previously expected [7][13]. Financial Performance - HPQ's F2Q25 revenue of $13,220 million was slightly below GS estimates of $13,241 million but above consensus of $13,132 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 3% [8][10]. - The Personal Systems Group revenue was $9,024 million, exceeding GS estimates, with a 6% year-over-year increase in units [5][10]. - Printing revenue was $4,181 million, which fell short of GS estimates and consensus, with total units up 1% [5][10]. Margin Analysis - The non-GAAP operating income for F2Q25 was $961 million, missing GS estimates of $1,076 million, with a margin of 7.3% [9][10]. - Personal Systems Group EBIT margins were reported at 4.5%, significantly below the GS estimate of 5.7% [9][10]. - Printing EBIT margins improved to 19.5%, slightly above GS estimates of 19.0% [9][10]. Future Guidance - For F3Q25, HPQ provided guidance for GAAP diluted EPS of $0.57-$0.69 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.68-$0.80, which is below the consensus estimate of $0.90 [6][11]. - The company anticipates free cash flow for F2025 to be in the range of $2.6-$3.0 billion, down from a previous estimate of $3.2-$3.6 billion [2][7]. Investment Thesis - The report suggests that HPQ's growth may be impacted by softer near-term demand for PCs and printing due to macroeconomic factors and excess channel inventory [13]. - However, HPQ's focus on higher-end PCs and initiatives in the printing segment, such as ink subscription services, may provide a competitive edge [13][14].