宏观深度报告20250530：老龄化进程下的消费变迁和银发经济

Group 1: Aging Population Trends - China's aging population is accelerating, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above increasing by approximately 0.6 percentage points annually from 2020 to 2024, compared to 0.5 percentage points from 2015 to 2019 and 0.3 percentage points from 2010 to 2015[12] - By the end of 2023, the 50-60 age group has become the main demographic in China, indicating a significant shift in population structure[12] - Compared to developed economies, Asian countries, including China, Korea, and Japan, transition from aging to deep aging societies more rapidly, while the U.S. and European countries take longer[12] Group 2: Consumption Changes Due to Aging - In Japan, from 1994 to 2006, the average annual growth rate of private consumption was only 0.8%, significantly lower than the previous period of 1981-1993[20] - Japan's private consumption growth further declined to an average of 0.2% from 2007 to 2024, primarily due to a decrease in the youth population, which is the main consumer group[20] - As aging progresses, essential consumption categories like food and healthcare see increased spending, while discretionary spending on housing and clothing declines[25] Group 3: Economic Implications for China - China's per capita disposable income has maintained a stable growth rate of over 5% since 2022, providing a solid economic foundation for consumption growth, unlike Japan, where income growth has stagnated[30] - China's urbanization rate was 65% as of 2022, indicating significant potential for growth compared to Japan's nearly 90% urbanization rate during its population decline[30] - The relationship between urbanization and consumption expenditure suggests that increasing urbanization can continue to drive consumption growth in China[32] Group 4: Development of Silver Economy - Japan's key policy for developing its silver economy was the implementation of the Long-Term Care Insurance Law in 2000, which facilitated market-driven growth in elder care services[45] - China can learn from Japan by establishing a comprehensive long-term care insurance system to alleviate financial pressures on elderly care and enhance consumption capacity[46] - Promoting re-employment opportunities for younger seniors can significantly boost their income and consumption, as their marginal propensity to consume is higher than that of younger populations[47]