Global-E(US:GLBE) Goldman Sachs·2025-05-30 02:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) since December 10, 2021, with a 12-month price target of $39.00, indicating an upside potential of 22.6% from the current price of $31.81 [6][25]. Core Insights - Management expressed confidence that the renewal with Shopify will not lead to a decoupling but will enhance the economics of the third-party (3P) solution, potentially accelerating Managed Markets volumes [1]. - The company is experiencing a growing pipeline, with some projects moving faster than expected due to tariff impacts, which could positively influence momentum into 2026 [1]. - The implementation backlog for the second half of the year is less concentrated than in 2024, reducing implementation risks [1]. - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, same-store sales (SSS) trends are tracking in line with expectations, with management reiterating guidance for 2025 [14][16]. - The renegotiation with Shopify is viewed positively, with management indicating that it will be net beneficial for GLBE, despite some changes in exclusivity and unit economics [14][17][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $752.8 million in 2024 to $1,393.4 million by 2027, with EBITDA increasing from $140.8 million to $339.4 million over the same period [2][11]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), from $0.64 in 2024 to $1.63 in 2027 [2][11]. - The forecasted free cash flow yield is expected to rise from 2.7% in 2024 to 6.1% by 2027 [2][11]. Market Position and Valuation - GLBE's market capitalization is approximately $5.6 billion, with an enterprise value of $5.0 billion [2]. - The company is positioned favorably with limited U.S. exposure (12% of inbound volume) and limited U.S. de-minimis exposure, which should help navigate current trade dynamics [1]. - The report suggests that the renegotiation with Shopify could lead to a mid-single-digit benefit to EBITDA in 2026, with potential for a 10% upside by 2027 if Managed Markets adoption accelerates [21][22].