海航控股（600221）：经营改善释放业绩潜力，第四大航价值重塑

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on operational improvements and performance potential [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the fourth largest airline in China, with a significant restructuring following its bankruptcy in 2021, leading to improved operational efficiency and performance recovery [7]. - The company benefits from a high proportion of operating lease aircraft, providing greater flexibility and resilience compared to competitors, alongside investments in various industry chain companies that are expected to enhance profitability as the aviation sector improves [7]. - The company is expected to leverage its geographical advantages, particularly from the Hainan Free Trade Port development, to capitalize on growth opportunities [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections show a significant increase from 58,641 million RMB in 2023 to 92,311 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.68% [6]. - The net profit forecast indicates a recovery from a loss of 921 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 5,684 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a strong turnaround in profitability [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from -0.02 RMB in 2024 to 0.13 RMB in 2027, indicating a positive trend in shareholder returns [6]. Operational Metrics - The company achieved a passenger volume of 23.06 million in the first four months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with international passenger volume surging by 78.3% [7]. - The passenger load factor reached 83% in 2023, showing an improvement of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the aircraft utilization rate surpassed the industry average for the first time in seven years [7]. - The company’s unit revenue per passenger kilometer (RPK) reached 0.53 RMB, ranking third in the industry and reflecting a significant increase compared to 2019 levels [7].