高盛：富途控股-业绩回顾 - 尽管 2025 年第一季度净利润超预期，全年预期变动不大；维持中性评级

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Futu Holdings since July 14, 2021 [10]. Core Insights - Futu reported a positive net profit growth in 1Q25, primarily due to better-than-expected cost savings and a reduction in client acquisition costs (CAC) [1]. - The management's guidance for 2025 indicates that CAC will remain high due to market volatility, despite the positive performance in 1Q25 [1][2]. - The guidance for paying user growth in 2025 is set at 800,000, reflecting a cautious outlook given the anticipated slowdown in new user growth starting from 2Q25 [2]. - A lower HIBOR rate is expected to negatively impact interest income growth, with management indicating that a 25 basis points rate cut could lead to a pre-tax profit decrease of HK$ 8-10 million per month [3]. - The report highlights the potential positive impact of stablecoin adoption, AI integration, and market expansion into regions like Japan and New Zealand on Futu's competitive edge [16]. Financial Estimates - The revenue estimates for 2025 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 1%, while net profit estimates have been revised upwards by 4% [17]. - The new target price for Futu is set at US$ 111.11, reflecting a 3% decrease from the previous target [17]. - The report projects total revenue for 2025 at HK$ 17,039.5 million, with net income expected to reach HK$ 6,600.1 million, indicating a growth rate of 21.5% [5][13]. Key Data - Futu's market capitalization is reported at US$ 15.0 billion [5]. - The company is positioned within the China Brokers & Asset Management sector, with a notable M&A rank of 3 [5]. - The report outlines a projected EPS of HK$ 47.74 for 2025, with a P/E ratio of 17.7 [10][5].