Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [7] Core Views - The company is undergoing brand upgrades focusing on global expansion, while new business models are still to be validated [2] - The company experienced a revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 4.921 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, and a net loss of 917 million yuan, a significant shift from profit to loss [10] - The company is actively restructuring its store operations and exploring new store formats, including promoting a franchise model and expanding into international markets [10] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at -0.15, -0.12, and 0.00 yuan respectively, with a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin due to weak downstream demand [4] - The target price for the company is set at 1.33 HKD, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method [4] - The company’s revenue is expected to recover gradually, with projected revenues of 5.067 billion yuan in 2025, 5.333 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.838 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 3.0%, 5.3%, and 9.5% respectively [6][10] Key Financial Information - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 63.2%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of -18.8% [6][10] - The number of direct stores decreased by 121 to 1,453, while franchise stores increased by 264 to 345, indicating a shift towards a franchise model [10] - The company’s total assets are projected to be 6.201 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 2.568 billion yuan [13]
奈雪的茶年报点评 —— 品牌升级聚焦全球化，新模式探索待验证