InventisBio (SH:688382) Orient Securities·2025-06-01 00:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.24 CNY, reflecting a reasonable market value of 163.33 billion CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has narrowed its losses, with a notable performance in commercialization expected. The 2024 revenue is projected at 1.69 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, while the net loss attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.40 billion CNY, a reduction of 15.4% year-on-year [9]. - The approval of the drug Gexosrese for commercialization is anticipated to drive growth, with 2025 being the first full year of commercialization for Gexosrese, alongside the inclusion of another drug in the National Medical Insurance Directory [9]. - The clinical pipeline is progressing well, with positive data from the TYK2 inhibitor trials, indicating a strong potential for future revenue generation [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 141 million CNY in 2025, 323 million CNY in 2026, and 525 million CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of -16.5%, 129.3%, and 62.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -346 million CNY in 2025, -377 million CNY in 2026, and -290 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a trend of narrowing losses [4]. - The gross margin is expected to remain high, with projections of 100.0% in 2025, 98.9% in 2026, and 98.0% in 2027 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis, indicating an enterprise value of 14.65 billion CNY and an equity value of 16.33 billion CNY, leading to a per-share value of 28.24 CNY [10]. - The report also includes a sensitivity analysis for the target price based on varying perpetual growth rates and WACC [10].