甘源食品（002991）：25Q1利润阶段性承压，关注海外市场突破

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025, attributed to reduced e-commerce activities and traditional retail performance, but showed a year-on-year increase when comparing Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [4] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, which has shown significant growth from a low base, indicating increasing influence and recognition [9] - Profit margins are expected to improve gradually in subsequent quarters as operational efficiencies are realized and overseas market contributions grow [9] Financial Performance Summary - In FY 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% [2] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 504 million yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year, with a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% [2] - The company's gross margin for FY 2024 was 35.46%, which decreased to 34.32% in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material costs and increased expenses [5][7] - The company’s sales expenses increased significantly in Q1 2025, reflecting investments in overseas market expansion and brand promotion [6] Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue from various product lines in FY 2024 included 705 million yuan from mixed nuts and beans, 524 million yuan from green peas, and 302 million yuan from sunflower seeds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 39.80%, 12.56%, and 10.48% [3] - Revenue from overseas markets grew by 1762% year-on-year, highlighting the potential for future growth in international sales [3] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 2.598 billion yuan, with EPS estimates revised to 4.38 yuan [10] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.032 billion yuan in 2026 and 3.461 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 5.13 yuan and 5.72 yuan [10]