甘源食品：25Q1 利润阶段性承压，关注海外市场突破-20250601

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025, attributed to reduced low-price gift box promotions during the Spring Festival, a decrease in traditional supermarket sales, and a high revenue base from the same period last year [4] - Despite the challenges, the company has shown strong growth in its comprehensive nut and bean series, with significant contributions from overseas markets [3][9] - The company is expected to improve its profit margins gradually as overseas market expansion continues and operational efficiencies are realized [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - In FY 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 504 million yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for FY 2024 was 35.46%, which decreased to 34.32% in Q1 2025, reflecting pressure from rising raw material costs and increased expenses [5][7] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.598 billion yuan and 3.032 billion yuan, respectively, and has revised EPS estimates to 4.38 yuan and 5.13 yuan for the same years [10]