金价或偏强，基本金属关注库存拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for non-ferrous metals is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] - The investment rating for basic metals and processing is also "Overweight" (maintained) [5] - The specific recommendation for the company "Shan Jin International" is "Buy" with a target price of 25.53 [6][54] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to show strong fluctuations due to tariff policies and inflation expectations [1][15] - Basic metals are experiencing strong near-term demand, with a focus on inventory turning points [3][13] - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on both gold and basic metals, suggesting potential upward pressure on gold prices [2][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates that gold prices may experience strong fluctuations in the short term due to ongoing tariff policies and inflation data [1][15] - Basic metals are currently facing strong demand, with a particular emphasis on monitoring inventory levels as a potential turning point [3][13] Key Companies and Dynamics - The report suggests that the ongoing tariff disputes and U.S. fiscal expansion may provide upward momentum for gold prices, recommending investment in industry leaders like Shan Jin International [2] - Shan Jin International reported a revenue of 4.321 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55.84%, and a net profit of 694 million yuan, up 37.91% year-on-year [55] Sub-industry Insights - Basic metals are seeing robust near-term demand, with a focus on inventory turning points [3][13] - The report notes that the aluminum market is experiencing a decline in inventory, which may support prices in the near term [14] - The gold market is influenced by U.S. tariff policies, which may lead to strong fluctuations in prices [15]