CATL(SZ:300750) Minmetals Securities·2025-06-03 04:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry is showing signs of profit margin improvement, indicating a potential industry turning point [3] - In 2024, China's cumulative installed capacity of power batteries reached 548.4 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 41.5%, maintaining a high growth rate [8][6] - The industry is experiencing a concentration of profits towards the battery segment, with the net profit of the lithium battery and materials industry reaching 61.52 billion yuan in 2024, of which 59.09 billion yuan came from the battery segment, accounting for 96% of the total [12][10] Demand Trends - The cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China for 2024 is 548.4 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.5% [8][6] - The overall demand for lithium battery materials remains robust, with the total sales of power and other batteries in 2024 reaching 1,039.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [8] Supply Trends - Since 2024, there has been a continuous resistance in quantity and price on the supply side, with clearer marginal changes in segments like copper foil [9] - Events such as production cuts and price adjustments in the lithium battery supply chain have contributed to the supply-side dynamics [9] Profitability Indicators - The net profit growth rate for the lithium battery and materials industry turned positive in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 32%, marking the first positive growth since 2023 [12][10] - The profitability of the industry is increasingly concentrated in the battery segment, with the battery segment's net profit margin improving [12][10] Cash Flow Analysis - The overall cash flow in the industry, measured as "cash on hand minus short-term borrowings," has been experiencing negative year-on-year growth, with CATL accounting for approximately 95% of the industry's cash flow [15][17] - As of Q1 2025, the cash flow situation for segments like iron lithium, negative electrodes, and copper foil remains negative [19] Capital Expenditure Trends - In Q1 2025, the capital expenditure in the lithium battery industry showed a year-on-year growth of 6%, marking the first positive growth in nearly two years, primarily driven by the battery segment [20][22] - Excluding CATL, the overall capital expenditure in the industry continues to decline year-on-year, although the rate of decline has narrowed [25] Inventory Levels - The current inventory levels in the industry are considered rational, with the inventory-to-total-assets ratio showing positive year-on-year growth since Q4 2024 [26][27]