DAYUAN PUMP(SH:603757) China Post Securities·2025-06-03 05:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.909 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.57%, but a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 10.55% to 255 million yuan [4][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant revenue increase of 37.21% to 380 million yuan, although net profit decreased by 3.95% [4]. - The company is experiencing a shift in product performance, with a decline in revenue from consumer products but a rapid increase in commercial products, which grew by 72.76% [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product category showed consumer products at 1.341 billion yuan (down 6.48%), commercial products at 206 million yuan (up 72.76%), industrial products at 278 million yuan (up 10.22%), and accessories at 45 million yuan (up 34.63%) [5]. - The gross margin decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 29.68%, with specific declines in consumer and commercial product margins [5]. - The company expects revenues of 2.180 billion, 2.447 billion, and 2.727 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14.22%, 12.26%, and 11.42% [10][12]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The heat pump industry is stabilizing, with the company planning to increase investment in Europe to capitalize on the recovery of the market [6]. - The liquid cooling temperature control sector is identified as a new growth point, with the company’s liquid cooling shield pump showing significant advantages in safety and noise reduction [7]. - The liquid cooling business achieved approximately 90 million yuan in revenue in 2024, marking an over 80% increase [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 257 million, 305 million, and 361 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 0.70%, 18.82%, and 18.12% [10][12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 14.48 in 2025 to 10.32 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [10][12].