雪峰科技（603227）：深度研究报告：拥稀缺资产，顺新疆大势，携强者同行

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.80 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in the Xinjiang explosives market, with a unique position as the only ammonium nitrate producer in the region. The report highlights the company's strong growth potential driven by the rising coal production in Xinjiang and the expected increase in explosive prices [7][9]. - The acquisition by Guangdong Hongda is expected to enhance production capacity and operational efficiency, providing significant growth opportunities for the company [7][9]. - The report forecasts profit expectations of 689 million CNY, 888 million CNY, and 1.08 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 11x, and 9x [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 6,101 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 13.1%. However, growth is expected to resume in subsequent years with increases of 8.5%, 10.3%, and 9.8% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 668 million CNY in 2024, with a significant decline of 21.7%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 3.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6% in the following years [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.62 CNY in 2024 to 1.01 CNY in 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain that includes upstream natural gas transportation, liquefaction, and deep processing, as well as downstream explosive products and blasting engineering services [18]. - The company’s explosive production capacity is expected to reach 119,500 tons by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 100% [35]. - The report emphasizes the scarcity of the company's ammonium nitrate production capacity, which is currently at 660,000 tons per year, with a utilization rate of approximately 68% [7][9]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a key player in the Xinjiang coal chemical industry, benefiting from the expected doubling of the local explosives market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [12][24]. - The report notes that the company controls a significant portion of the explosive distribution in Northern Xinjiang, which positions it well to capitalize on the high demand for explosives in the region [17][35].