雪峰科技：深度研究报告拥稀缺资产，顺新疆大势，携强者同行-20250603

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.80 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the Xinjiang explosives market and has a unique position as the only ammonium nitrate producer in the region, which provides a significant competitive advantage [7][9]. - The report anticipates sustained high prices for explosives due to the growth of the Xinjiang coal industry, with projections indicating a potential market for blasting services exceeding 10 billion CNY by 2030 [7][9]. - Following the acquisition by Guangdong Hongda, the company is expected to see significant capacity injections and operational efficiency improvements, enhancing its growth prospects [7][9][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6,101 million CNY, 6,619 million CNY, 7,302 million CNY, and 8,019 million CNY respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -13.1%, 8.5%, 10.3%, and 9.8% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 668 million CNY in 2024A, increasing to 1,080 million CNY by 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of -21.7%, 3.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6% [2]. - Earnings per share are expected to rise from 0.62 CNY in 2024A to 1.01 CNY in 2027E, with price-to-earnings ratios decreasing from 15x in 2024 to 9x in 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain that includes upstream natural gas transportation, liquefaction, and deep processing, as well as downstream explosive products and blasting engineering services [18][25]. - The company’s explosive production capacity is projected to reach 119,500 tons by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 100% [35]. - The company’s ammonium nitrate production capacity is 660,000 tons per year, with a current utilization rate of approximately 68% [7][25]. Market Position - The company controls a significant portion of the explosive distribution in Northern Xinjiang, holding stakes in 11 out of 25 distribution companies in the region [17]. - The report highlights the expected stability in the market structure for mixed explosives, with the company positioned to benefit from the high demand driven by the coal industry [7][9]. Growth Drivers - The anticipated injection of at least 150,000 tons of explosive capacity from Guangdong Hongda over the next three years is expected to significantly enhance the company's growth trajectory [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for cost reductions in natural gas procurement, which could substantially increase profit margins [7][9].