玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: If glass prices remain low, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations. Although glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [3]. -纯碱: The pressure on the futures market continues. Newly invested production capacity may gradually release output, and maintenance has not provided short - term support. With the cost decline, there is still profit in the industrial chain. It should be treated bearishly, and for the continuous downward momentum of the soda ash price, soda ash plants need to further reduce prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - Glass price monthly forecast is in the range of 900 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.74% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 46.0% [2]. - Soda ash price monthly forecast is in the range of 1100 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.3% [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management: When the glass inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of FG2509 can be sold at 1100; 50% of FG509 C1200 can be sold at 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - For soda ash inventory management: When the soda ash inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of SA2509 can be sold at 1300; 50% of SA509 C1300 can be sold at 30 - 40 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The industrial chain faces overcapacity pressure in the future; it is in the off - season of demand with weak expectations, but no new cold repair expectations have been triggered [3]. - Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of overcapacity, and there are still new production capacities to be put into operation in the long - term; the cost is continuously decreasing, and there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.3.2 Bullish Factors - Glass: The supply remains in a low - level fluctuation state; the futures price is approaching the full - industrial - chain loss state, and the cold repair expectation will increase at low prices [3]. - Soda ash: Factory maintenance from May to June has been gradually implemented; export is better than expected, alleviating the domestic overcapacity pressure [3]. 3.3.3 Bearish Factors - Glass: There is still an expectation of furnace ignition on the supply side, and no large - scale cold repair is expected; the actual demand is weak; the overall social inventory is high, and the off - season is coming [3]. - Soda ash: New production capacities continue to be put into operation; the social inventory is at an absolute historical high; there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data 3.4.1 Glass - On June 3, 2025, the price of glass 05 contract was 1069, down 27 (-2.46%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 954, down 28 (-2.85%); the price of 01 contract was 1014, down 29 (-2.78%) [3][5]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 115, up 1; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 60, up 1; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 55, down 2 [5]. - The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 62, unchanged; the 09 contract basis in Hubei was 86, up 28 [5]. - The average price of Shahe delivery products was 1130.8, unchanged. The prices in some regions decreased, such as - 20 in North China, - 10 in Northeast China, etc. [6]. 3.4.2 Soda Ash - On June 3, 2025, the price of soda ash 05 contract was 1221, down 18 (-1.45%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 1185, down 14 (-1.17%); the price of 01 contract was 1175, down 17 (-1.43%) [7]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 36, down 4 (-10%); the 9 - 1 month spread was 10, up 3 (42.86%); the 1 - 5 month spread was - 46, up 1 (-2.13%) [7]. - The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 50, up 10; the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 105, down 6 [7]. - The heavy - alkali market prices in some regions decreased, such as - 50 in North China, - 20 in East China, etc. [7].