高盛：对中国消费品以旧换新计划的调研

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the consumer goods trade-in program in China Core Insights - China's real GDP growth is projected to be above 5% year-over-year in H1 2025, driven by stronger-than-expected exports and the consumer goods trade-in program [3][4] - The trade-in program, launched in April 2024, has significantly boosted retail sales, with January-April 2025 retail sales averaging 2.5% above the pre-trade-in program trend [3][5][6] - The program's effectiveness is attributed to expanded product coverage and increased subsidies, with the National Development and Reform Commission allocating RMB 300 billion for 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections Impact of Trade-in Program - The trade-in program has led to a year-over-year growth of headline retail sales improving to 4.7% in the first four months of 2025, compared to 3.5% in 2024 [6] - The expansion of eligible goods categories, including mobile phones and smart home devices, has contributed to the sales boost [8][11] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a large pool of potential trade-in demand for old autos and home appliances, with an estimated RMB 1.7 trillion worth of appliances aged over 8 years [20][23] - However, monthly auto trade-in applications have shown signs of slowing, indicating potential challenges in sustaining the program's momentum [24][30] Future Consumption Growth Areas - The report highlights a shift in policy focus towards services consumption, which currently accounts for 46% of household spending in China, significantly lower than the 60% seen in developed countries [35][39] - Structural issues and cultural factors are identified as barriers to increasing services consumption, necessitating substantial policy efforts for improvement [39][40]