PDD(PDD) Tianfeng Securities·2025-06-04 07:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a 10% year-on-year revenue growth to 95.7 billion yuan, with marketing services revenue increasing by 15% to 48.7 billion yuan and transaction services revenue growing by 6% to 47.0 billion yuan. The revenue growth slowdown is attributed to intensified competition and external uncertainties, while adjusted net profit decreased by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 18% [1][2]. - The company is facing challenges due to increased competition and its decision to enhance investments in merchant support and platform ecosystem development, leading to a 43% increase in sales expenses to 33.4 billion yuan. This may pressure short-term profitability, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strengthened supply chain support for new merchants [2][3]. - The company's overseas market expansion, particularly the introduction of a semi-managed model in North America, is expected to impact transaction service revenue due to a decrease in overall monetization rates. The cancellation of the "small package tax exemption" policy in the U.S. may also increase merchant costs, potentially slowing growth in the North American market [3]. Summary by Sections - Q1 2025 Performance: Revenue increased by 10% to 95.7 billion yuan, with marketing services up 15% and transaction services up 6%. Adjusted net profit fell by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan [1]. - Revenue and Profitability Challenges: Revenue growth is slowing due to increased competition and the company's investment strategy, with sales expenses rising significantly. Short-term profitability may be under pressure, but long-term competitiveness is expected to improve [2]. - Overseas Market Dynamics: The introduction of a semi-managed model in North America may affect revenue, and regulatory changes could impact merchant costs and growth [3]. - Revised Financial Projections: The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 440.2 billion, 505.6 billion, and 577.4 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates revised to 104.8 billion, 132.7 billion, and 155.5 billion yuan [3].