百度 (BIDU US) 短期利润承压；关注云及自动驾驶机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price of $99.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.2% from the current price of $83.06 [1][11]. Core Insights - Baidu's core revenue and operating profit are projected to grow by 2% and decline by 20% year-on-year respectively in 2025, primarily due to a decrease in search advertising revenue, which is expected to be partially offset by a 30% increase in AI cloud revenue and performance from new business segments [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sustainability of cloud revenue growth and the global rollout of Robotaxi services, which could potentially reverse the company's valuation logic [1]. - The advertising segment's contribution to total revenue has decreased to around 60%, highlighting the growing significance of cloud and autonomous driving opportunities [1]. Financial Forecasts - The updated financial forecasts for Baidu indicate that total revenue for 2025 is expected to be RMB 135,508 million, with a growth rate of 1.8% [2]. - The core business revenue is projected at RMB 107,243 million for 2025, with a slight increase in growth rate [2]. - The adjusted operating profit is forecasted to decline to RMB 20,542 million in 2025, reflecting a decrease in operating profit margin to 15.2% [2][6]. Advertising Revenue Trends - In Q1 2025, Baidu's search advertising revenue is expected to decline by 6% year-on-year, driven by the increasing share of AI-generated search results, which reached 35% in April 2025 [5]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in search advertising revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with an overall expected decrease of 9% for the year [5]. - The company is exploring new monetization methods for AI search results to enhance revenue without compromising user experience [5]. Profitability Outlook - The report projects a decline in operating profit margin for Baidu's core business to 14.8% in Q2 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 18% [5]. - The overall operating profit margin for 2025 is expected to decrease by 1.4 percentage points to 17.8% due to increased costs associated with AI and advertising [5][6].