Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12 months that exceeds the relevant industry average [6][13]. Core Views - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 14.30, reflecting a potential upside of 17.2% from the current closing price of HKD 12.20 [1][2]. - Recent data presented at the ASCO conference has enhanced the company's product sales and overseas potential, leading to an optimistic outlook for its innovative platform [2][6]. - The report highlights significant clinical data for key products, including Suvisertan monoclonal antibody and oral SERD, which are expected to drive more overseas transactions and improve market recognition [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 have been updated to RMB 7,737 million, a 1% increase from previous estimates, with further growth expected to RMB 9,028 million in 2026 and RMB 10,311 million in 2027 [5][11]. - Gross profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 6,267 million, reflecting a gross margin of 81.0%, which is an improvement from previous estimates [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1,291 million, representing a 6% increase from prior forecasts [5][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 71.83%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [4]. - The stock's 52-week high is HKD 12.84, while the low is HKD 5.19, indicating significant volatility and growth potential [4]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at RMB 32,312 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 14.30, based on a WACC of 9.4% [7][11].
先声药业：多项数据公布于ASCO大会，产品销售及出海潜力提升，上调目标价-20250604