聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, polyethylene followed the rise of coking coal, but its own fundamentals changed little. On the supply side, PE plants are in the peak maintenance season, with a marginal decrease in supply. However, due to the large number of new plant startups at the beginning of the year, production is still significantly higher than the same period in previous years. On the demand side, the low - profit environment suppresses the operating rate, and the agricultural film is in the off - season of production and sales, resulting in weak demand [2] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include PE plants entering the seasonal maintenance period, which is expected to last until July, and the current futures price being at a relatively low level with limited downward space. Negative factors include the planned startups of multiple HDPE plants in the middle of the year and the reduction in domestic demand due to the off - season of downstream production and sales and the low - profit environment [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyethylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.89% and a historical percentile of 36.3% over the past 3 years [1] Polyethylene Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management (High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline): For the long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short L2509 plastic futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell L2509C7200 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 70 - 120 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1] - Procurement Management (Low regular inventory, want to purchase according to orders): For the short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy L2509 plastic futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell L2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 130 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1] Polyethylene Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis on June 4, 2025, was 116 yuan/ton, showing a daily change of - 86 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 77 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts were 7018, 7000, and 7049 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 82, 65, and 86 yuan/ton and weekly increases of 39, 14, and 42 yuan/ton [5] - The L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 month - spreads were 18, - 49, and - 31 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes of 17, - 21, and - 4 yuan/ton and weekly changes of 25, - 28, and - 3 yuan/ton. The L - P spread was 101 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton [5] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 4, 2025, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7030, 7160, and 7170 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, - 30, and 0 yuan/ton, and the weekly changes were - 100, - 110, and - 110 yuan/ton [7] - The East China - North China and East China - South China regional spreads were 130 and - 10 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 30 and - 30 yuan/ton and weekly changes of - 10 and 0 yuan/ton [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between HDPE film, HDPE hollow, HDPE injection, HDPE drawing, HDPE pipe, LDPE film, and LLDPE film had different values and changes. For example, the HDPE film - LLDPE film spread was 510 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 5 yuan/ton [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - The Brent crude oil price was 66 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly increase of 2.06 dollars/barrel. The US ethane price was 0.225 dollars/gallon, with a daily increase of 0.0002 dollars/gallon and a weekly decrease of 0.0231 dollars/gallon [7] - The Northwest coal price was 475 yuan/ton with no change, and the East China methanol price was 2355 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 60 yuan/ton [7] - The oil - based PE profit was - (not provided), with a daily decrease of 95.8048 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 283.2918 yuan/ton. The coal - based PE profit was 716 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan/ton [7] - The profit from purchasing methanol externally to produce PE was 270 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 205 yuan/ton. The profit from purchasing ethane externally to produce PE was 1682 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.8709 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 209.1997 yuan/ton [7] - The profit from purchasing ethylene externally to produce PE was - (not provided) previously, with a daily increase of 191.8836 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 163.8362 yuan/ton [7]