英伟达：业绩延续强劲，强需求对冲H20损失

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment rating for the technology sector, particularly for NVIDIA, with expectations of significant revenue growth and profitability in the upcoming quarters [2][58]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's FY26Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue increasing by 69.2% year-over-year to $44.06 billion, and net profit rising by 26.2% to $18.78 billion. The gross margin was reported at 60.5%, impacted by a $4.5 billion impairment charge related to H20 inventory [7][8]. - The demand for AI and data center products is driving growth, with significant contributions from the Blackwell architecture, which accounted for nearly 70% of computing revenue [32][33]. - Export restrictions are expected to impact NVIDIA's market share in China, particularly in the AI accelerator market, which is projected to grow to approximately $50 billion [20][32]. Summary by Sections FY26Q1 Performance - NVIDIA reported FY26Q1 revenue of $44.06 billion, a 69.2% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of $18.78 billion, reflecting a 26.2% growth. The gross margin was 60.5%, with an adjusted gross margin of 71.3% when excluding impairment charges [7][8][9]. Rapid Growth in Inference Demand and Export Restrictions - Data center revenue reached $39.11 billion, up 73.4% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for AI solutions. The gaming segment also saw a 42.2% increase in revenue, while automotive revenue grew by 72.3% [17][42][46]. - Export controls have led to a significant loss of market share in China, with $4.6 billion in H20 revenue confirmed and an additional $2.5 billion in unfulfilled orders [20][32]. Performance Guidance - For FY26Q2, NVIDIA expects revenue to reach $45 billion, a 50% year-over-year increase, with gross margins projected to improve to 71.8% [48][49]. Consensus Expectations and Valuation - Bloomberg consensus estimates forecast NVIDIA's FY2026 revenue at $200.6 billion and FY2027 at $249.1 billion, with corresponding net profits of $104.98 billion and $133.57 billion [50].