Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading brand in the fresh tea beverage sector, driven by product innovation and an efficient supply chain, which supports its high operational efficiency [5][8]. - The fresh beverage market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028, increasing its share of the overall beverage market [7][24]. - The company holds a strong competitive position, ranking second in the fresh tea beverage market with a GMV of 19.2 billion yuan and a market share of 9.1% as of the end of 2023 [7][32]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of June 4, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 29.50 HKD, with a total market capitalization of approximately 70,156.48 million HKD [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 7,675.67 million yuan, 2024: 8,791.36 million yuan, 2025E: 10,967.55 million yuan, 2026E: 12,926.70 million yuan, 2027E: 14,761.33 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 38.07%, 14.54%, 24.75%, 17.86%, and 14.19% [6][56]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,079.63 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 2,635.01 million yuan by 2027, with growth rates of 194.48%, 36.95%, 30.19%, 18.87%, and 15.17% [6][56]. - The company is expected to maintain a high return on equity (ROE), projected at 185.19% in 2023, declining to 29.65% by 2027 [6][56]. Industry Trends - The fresh beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the current market size at 517.5 billion yuan, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, and expected to grow to 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028 [7][24]. - The company has a robust product development capability, focusing on fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee, with continuous product innovation [10][47]. - The supply chain efficiency is enhanced by a network of 22 warehouses, with 76% of stores located within 150 kilometers of a warehouse, ensuring timely deliveries [51][53]. Competitive Position - The company is well-positioned in the competitive landscape of the fresh tea beverage market, with a solid ecological foundation and a significant number of stores [7][32]. - The report identifies comparable companies in the same sector, such as Mixue Group and Tehai International, to benchmark the company's valuation [8][56].
古茗（01364）：现制茶饮头部品牌，产品及供应链驱动公司高效运营