Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.66 per share, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price of HKD 4.30 [6][11]. Core Views - The company reported a net loss of RMB 263.01 million in Q1 2025, with multiple negative factors already released, including operational losses and significant asset impairments. Support from TBEA Group and proactive measures like accounts receivable factoring are expected to help the company navigate through this challenging period [3][8]. - The supply-demand balance for polysilicon is improving slowly, with 2025 performance likely to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand. However, the report notes that the downside for polysilicon prices is limited at this stage [4][9]. - The company's value is considered severely underestimated when accounting for its solar and wind power station construction and operational assets. The revenue composition for 2024 shows polysilicon contributing 37.4%, while wind and solar projects contribute 35.9% and 11.3%, respectively [5][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 30,752 million, which is expected to decline to RMB 21,213 million in FY2024, and further to RMB 20,518 million in FY2025, reflecting a decrease of 18.1% and 31.0% respectively. A return to growth is anticipated in FY2026 with revenues projected at RMB 21,898 million [7][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be negative in FY2024 and FY2025, with losses of RMB 3,905 million and RMB 875 million, respectively. A recovery is expected in FY2026 with a net profit of RMB 1,098 million [7][14]. Market Conditions - As of June 4, 2025, the average transaction prices for n-type and p-type polysilicon are reported at RMB 37,500 per ton and RMB 31,300 per ton, respectively. The industry is currently operating under a self-discipline framework, with production quotas limiting significant fluctuations in output [4][9]. Asset Valuation - The report emphasizes that the company's operational solar and wind power assets, totaling approximately 3.5 GW, significantly contribute to its overall value, which is not fully reflected in the current market price [5][10].
新特能源（01799）：多重利空释放，静待多晶硅供需改善