Workflow
零跑汽车(09863):新车周期强劲,全球化稳步推进
LEAPMOTORLEAPMOTOR(HK:09863) HTSC·2025-06-05 09:53

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 81.15 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a strong new car cycle in 2025, with a sales target of 500,000 to 600,000 units for the year, and aims to achieve profitability [2][13][15]. - The company has reported a significant year-on-year sales increase of 161% for the first five months of 2025, reaching 173,658 units [2][15]. - The gross margin has reached historical highs of 13.3% in Q4 2024 and 14.9% in Q1 2025, driven by scale effects, sales structure optimization, and cost management [2][14][15]. Summary by Sections Sales and Growth - The company aims for annual sales of 500,000 to 600,000 units and has achieved a cumulative sales increase of 161% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025 [2][15]. - The company is launching new models across four platforms (A, B, C, D) to support sales growth, with the B platform expected to introduce three new models in 2025 [2][16][18]. Channel Expansion and Operations - The company is expanding its channel network with a focus on efficiency and profitability for dealers, achieving a channel profitability rate of over 80% in 2024 [3][17]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has 756 sales outlets covering 279 cities, with plans to exceed 1,000 outlets by the end of the year [3][17]. International Expansion and Strategic Partnerships - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, with a target of over 550 overseas channels and an export goal of 50,000 to 60,000 units in 2025 [4][20]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed, including collaborations with Stellantis and Peugeot Citroën, which are expected to contribute to revenue and gross margin [4][22][25]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 68.71 billion, RMB 91.40 billion, and RMB 116.66 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive in 2025 [5][23]. - The company is assigned a price-to-sales (PS) target of 1.5 times for 2025, reflecting a premium valuation due to its strong new car cycle and strategic initiatives [5][23].