Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-05 10:36Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The near - term contradictions of caustic soda are limited, and the spot price still has support. There are still many maintenance operations in June, so the overall supply pressure will not be significant. Also, Weiqiao and 50% caustic soda exports have a certain carrying capacity. In the near - term, the willingness of upstream producers to issue warehouse receipts is low, and there is no obvious pressure. Although the non - aluminum sector feedback is average, it also does not have obvious suppressing power. The medium - term supply - demand imbalance will suppress the overall price, and it may wait for the spot price to weaken. [7] Summary According to Related Contents Core Contradiction - Strong reality, weak expectation. There is no obvious pressure on the near - end spot market, and there is no obvious downward driving force for now; in the medium - to - long term, there is production capacity expansion pressure, which limits the price increase. It is in a positive spread pattern. [4] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretation) - In the near - term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure; there are still many maintenance operations in June; the spot price remains relatively strong. [5] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretation) - In the medium - to - long term, there is an oversupply pressure. The supply side has an expectation of concentrated production capacity expansion, and the increase in demand is insufficient to support a market reversal. [6] Price and Spread Information Caustic Soda Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spread | Futures Contract | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 2025 - 06 - 04 | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Caustic Soda 05 Contract | 2347 | 2330 | 17 | 0.73% | | Caustic Soda 09 Contract | 2367 | 2371 | - 4 | - 0.17% | | Caustic Soda 01 Contract | 2307 | 2271 | 36 | 1.59% | | Month - to - Month Spread (5 - 9) | - 20 | - 41 | 21 | | | Month - to - Month Spread (9 - 1) | 60 | 100 | - 40 | | | Month - to - Month Spread (1 - 5) | - 40 | - 59 | 19 | | | 05 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 465.5 | 482.5 | - 17 | | | 09 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 445.5 | 441.5 | 4 | | [8] Liquid Caustic Soda and Flake Caustic Soda Spot Price - The spot prices of liquid caustic soda (32% and 50%) and flake caustic soda in different regions on different dates are provided. Most of the prices remained unchanged on 2025 - 06 - 04 compared with the previous day, except for some flake caustic soda prices in Shandong and East China which increased by 0.7%. [9] Brand/Regional Price Spread | Price Spread | 2025 - 06 - 04 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong 50% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda | - 73 | - 73 | 0 | | Jiangsu 49% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda | 20 | 20 | 0 | | Jiangsu 48% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda | 104 | 104 | 0 | | Northwest 99% Caustic Soda - 50% Caustic Soda | 433 | 433 | 0 | | Jiangsu - Shandong (32% Caustic Soda Converted to 100%) | 119 | 119 | 0 | | 50% Caustic Soda (Jiangsu - Shandong) | 200 | 180 | 20 | | 50% Caustic Soda (Guangdong - Shandong) | 530 | 520 | 10 | [10] Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.71% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 67.0%. [3] Risk Management Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | High finished - product inventory, worried about caustic soda price decline | Long | To prevent inventory depreciation losses, short caustic soda futures according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs; sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the caustic soda price rises, the spot selling price can be locked. | SH2509, SH509C2600 | Sell | 50 | 2600 - 2650, 30 - 40 | | Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, hoping to purchase according to order situation | Short | To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise in caustic soda price, buy caustic soda futures at present to lock in procurement costs in the futures market; sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the caustic soda price falls, the spot purchase price can be locked. | SH2509, SH509P2200 | Buy, Sell | 50 | 2300 - 2350, 50 - 60 | [3]