NJBK(SH:601009) HTSC·2025-06-05 10:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 12.82 [8]. Core Insights - The company expects a year-on-year increase in credit, but retail demand and risk improvement trends still need observation [1]. - Deposit re-pricing is at a peak, leading to continuous optimization of liability costs [1]. - The company anticipates a strong redemption of convertible bonds, which will solidify its capital base [1]. Credit and Asset Quality - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the company's loans increased by 14.3% and 14.7% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to RMB 157.3 billion and RMB 89.7 billion respectively [2]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.83% in Q1 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter [2]. Interest Income and Performance - The net interest income in Q1 2025 rose by 17.8% year-on-year, with a net interest margin improvement of 6 basis points compared to 2024 [3]. - The company's revenue and net profit growth rates were 6.5% and 7.1% respectively, indicating a favorable performance compared to peers [3]. Strategic Direction - The new chairman has invigorated the bank's reform momentum, establishing a clear strategic path focused on reducing cost-to-income ratios and enhancing asset quality management [4]. - As of June 4, 2025, the company has a convertible bond balance of RMB 57 billion, which is expected to enhance its capital adequacy ratio upon conversion [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a profit forecast of RMB 21.8 billion, RMB 23.7 billion, and RMB 26.1 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.1%, 8.8%, and 10.0% respectively [5]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.82 times for 2025, indicating a valuation premium due to effective strategic transformation and broad business expansion potential [5].