汽车汽配：超配资产负债表持续恶化，4Q25实现盈利较难

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of US$4.00, reflecting a potential upside of 7% from the current price of US$3.75 [1][15]. Core Insights - The target price has been revised down from US$4.90 to US$4.00, indicating an 18% decrease [2][15]. - The company is expected to face challenges in achieving profitability by the fourth quarter of 2025, with significant losses reported in the first quarter of 2025 [6][7][11]. - Revenue projections for 2025 have been adjusted to RMB 75.454 billion, while 2026 and 2027 projections have been slightly reduced to RMB 90.670 billion and RMB 117.416 billion, respectively [10][13][15]. Financial Performance - NIO reported a non-GAAP loss of RMB 62.8 billion in Q1 2025, a 28.2% year-over-year increase, primarily due to a 29.4% rise in operating expenses [6][11]. - The company's cash reserves decreased significantly from RMB 41.9 billion at the end of 2024 to RMB 26 billion by the end of Q1 2025, raising liquidity concerns [6][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be RMB -9.82, improving to RMB -9.33 in 2026 and RMB -8.25 in 2027 [2][10][14]. Sales and Production Forecast - NIO's management has guided for Q2 2025 sales between 72,000 and 75,000 vehicles, representing a year-over-year growth of 25.5% to 30.7% [8][11]. - The total vehicle sales forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased to 286,000 units, with 2026 sales projected at 417,000 units [8][13]. Valuation - The valuation method used is the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio, which has been adjusted to 0.8x for 2025, down from 1.0x, reflecting the deteriorating financial condition of the company [15][21]. - The current market capitalization of NIO is approximately US$7.852 billion [1]. Market Comparison - NIO's P/S ratio of 0.8 is significantly lower than its competitors, such as Xpeng Motors at 1.7 and Li Auto at 1.3, indicating a potential undervaluation relative to peers [21].