迈威尔科技（MRVL）：ASIC核心受益标的，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Marvell Technology (MRVL US) with a target price of $110.42, representing a potential upside of 77% from the current price of $62.36 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) is expected to grow faster than that for Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), driven by the increasing adoption of CoWoS packaging technology [6][10]. - Marvell is anticipated to maintain a strong order flow for ASICs, particularly from major clients like AWS and Intel, with the potential for a third significant client to join [7][12]. - Financial forecasts indicate a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% for net profit from 2025 to 2028, surpassing the market consensus of 41% [8][44]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for Marvell Technology with a target price of $110.42, based on an average P/E of 27.0 times for the fiscal years 2027-28 [1][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for 2026 are projected at $8,219 million, with EPS expected to be $2.61 [9]. - The net profit CAGR for Marvell from 2025 to 2028 is forecasted at 43%, driven by increased contributions from high-margin data center revenues [8][44]. Market Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the demand for ASICs is expected to grow at a CAGR of 65% from 2025 to 2027, compared to a 21% CAGR for GPUs [6][17]. - The share of CoWoS capacity allocated to ASICs and other products is projected to increase from 31% in 2025 to 46% in 2027 [6][17]. Client Relationships and Order Flow - Marvell has secured long-term agreements with AWS for ASIC development, which is expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth [30][31]. - The potential addition of a third major client is anticipated to further enhance Marvell's ASIC revenue potential [30][12]. Competitive Positioning - Marvell's technological advantages and established client relationships position it favorably in the ASIC market, allowing it to capture more orders compared to competitors [12][56]. - The report emphasizes that Marvell's valuation has room for improvement, given its expected net profit growth trajectory compared to peers [55][56].