国海证券晨会纪要-20250606

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights China Shenhua (601088.SH) as a state-owned enterprise with a stable operation and high dividend yield, characterized by low debt, high cash reserves, and a robust dividend policy, with a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 224.71% from 2022 to 2024 [3][4] - The company operates an integrated business model encompassing coal production, transportation, power generation, and coal chemical industries, with a projected gross profit margin distribution of 69.93% for coal, 13.36% for power, and smaller contributions from other segments [3][4] Group 2: Coal Business - China Shenhua possesses significant coal resources, with a total resource volume of 34.36 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 15.09 billion tons, ensuring a long asset duration and sustainable high dividends [4] - The company has a high long-term contract ratio exceeding 80%, which helps mitigate price volatility, and its coal production cost is competitive at 179 RMB per ton, leading to a projected gross profit of 67.1 billion RMB for 2025 [4][5] Group 3: Power Generation - The company has a total installed capacity of 46,264 MW as of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.65%, and plans to enhance its coal self-sufficiency rate, which currently stands at 76% [5] - The projected gross profit for the power segment in 2025 is estimated at 16.5 billion RMB, supported by an increase in electricity sales volume [5] Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - China Shenhua operates an extensive railway network of 2,408 kilometers, facilitating efficient coal transportation, with a stable increase in self-owned railway turnover [6] - The company also manages multiple ports and shipping operations, with a projected gross profit of 1.64 billion RMB from transportation and logistics in 2025 [6][7] Group 5: Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment includes a coal-to-olefins project with a capacity of 600,000 tons per year, with ongoing upgrades expected to enhance profitability [7] - The projected gross profit for the coal chemical division in 2025 is estimated at 400 million RMB [7] Group 6: Investment Outlook - The report forecasts revenue growth for China Shenhua, with expected revenues of 302.84 billion RMB in 2025, 315.26 billion RMB in 2026, and 327.99 billion RMB in 2027, alongside a net profit forecast of 51.40 billion RMB for 2025 [8] - The company is expected to maintain a strong investment value due to its integrated business model and increasing dividend payout ratios, with a "buy" rating recommended [8]