北新建材：平台型建材，架构初长成-20250606

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.93 CNY based on a 15x valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a market share of nearly 70% in the gypsum board market, which has a size of approximately 150-200 billion CNY. The company aims to enhance the consumption attributes of gypsum boards, reduce costs, expand product categories, and accelerate internationalization [2][14]. - The company has adopted a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on waterproof materials and coatings, with significant revenue growth in both segments [3]. - The company has implemented a restricted stock incentive plan, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of non-net profit attributable to shareholders of at least 14.22%, 16.12%, and 17.08% for 2025-2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Gypsum Board Consumption Attributes - The company has a gypsum board market share of 67.38%, with a production volume of 2.165 billion square meters in 2023 [14]. - The company is focused on cost reduction, with a projected unit cost of 3.71 CNY per square meter in 2024, down by 0.19 CNY from the previous year [52]. - The company is expanding its product categories, including light steel keels and powder mortar, and is investing in gypsum fiber boards for interior and partition walls [2][63]. Section 2: Waterproof and Coating Business Expansion - The waterproofing materials segment has reached a revenue scale among the top three in the industry, while the coatings segment is expanding through acquisitions, including a significant merger with Jiaboli [3]. - The company’s coating production capacity is expected to increase from 103,000 tons to over 1.3 million tons by the end of 2024 [3]. Section 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts revenues of 28.168 billion CNY, 30.126 billion CNY, and 32.317 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 7%, and 7% [4][8]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.142 billion CNY, 4.449 billion CNY, and 4.813 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 14%, 7%, and 8% [4][8].