TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) Minsheng Securities·2025-06-08 03:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [4][6]. Core Views - The company plans to enhance its electrolytic aluminum production capacity by 200,000 tons through a green low-carbon efficiency improvement project, with an investment of approximately 2.23 billion yuan [1][2]. - The project aims to reduce energy costs significantly by adopting advanced energy-saving technologies, leading to industry-leading power consumption levels for aluminum production [2][3]. - The company's integrated layout is expected to stabilize performance, with self-sufficiency in prebaked anodes and alumina, and a strategic expansion into Indonesia and Guinea for resource supply [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Cost Efficiency - The electrolytic aluminum capacity will increase to 1.4 million tons, with a significant release of new capacity expected in 2026 [2]. - The project will utilize advanced technologies that enhance the lifespan and efficiency of production, resulting in lower electricity costs [2][3]. Strategic Layout and Resource Supply - The company has achieved 100% self-sufficiency in alumina and prebaked anodes, with ongoing projects in Guangxi and Xinjiang [3]. - A strategic investment of $1.556 billion is planned for a 2 million-ton alumina production line in Indonesia, with the first phase already approved [3]. - The acquisition of a 50% stake in a Guinea-based mining project will further secure raw material supply, with a planned annual capacity of 5-6 million tons of bauxite [3]. Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.126 billion yuan, 6.207 billion yuan, and 7.008 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 6, and 5 [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 28.089 billion yuan in 2024 to 35.569 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][10].