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策略周报:纷扰于外,求诸于内-20250608

Market Overview - During the week of June 2 to June 6, the A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.13%, 0.88%, 1.60%, and 2.32% respectively [5] - The sectors that performed well included telecommunications (+5.27%), non-ferrous metals (+3.74%), and electronics (+3.60%), while household appliances (-1.79%), food and beverage (-1.06%), and transportation (-0.54%) lagged behind [5] - The current PE (TTM) for CSI 300 is 12.56 times, with a risk premium of 6.31%, which is above one standard deviation, while the ChiNext Index's PE (TTM) is 30.92, below negative one standard deviation [5] Economic and Policy Insights - The Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump had a phone conversation, agreeing to continue implementing the Geneva consensus and hold new talks soon, which may reduce uncertainties regarding U.S.-China tariff tensions [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, which is expected to stabilize market expectations [5] - The OECD has downgraded the U.S. and global economic growth forecasts, with the U.S. growth rate for 2025 revised down from 2.2% to 1.6% due to tariff policies and increased uncertainties [5] Sector Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that in terms of PE valuation, sectors such as food and beverage, and agriculture are at historical lows, while real estate and computer sectors are at historical highs [27] - The current PB valuation for non-ferrous metals is at 27.50, while coal is at 27.17, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [29] - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a wide fluctuation and structural market trend in the short term, with a focus on value dividend sectors and domestically supported technology industries such as AI, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals [5][27]