SCS(SH:601555) Soochow Securities·2025-06-09 03:35Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market remained in a slight oscillation. The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped from 1.675% last Friday to 1.6525%, a decrease of 2.25bp. Future focus should be on tariff policies and the possibility of the central bank restarting Treasury bond purchases. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to oscillate within the range of 1.6% - 1.7%. If the central bank restarts Treasury bond purchases, the short-term interest rates are more likely to decline [12][17]. - This week, affected by better - than - expected non - farm data, the US Treasury bond yield curve rebounded across the board. The Fedwatch shows that the pricing for interest rate cuts this year is less than two times. The US Treasury bond yield may continue to oscillate at a high level, as the domestic game uncertainty in the US has increased [17]. - The final values of the US Markit manufacturing and service PMI in May both expanded, increasing inflationary pressure. The growth of new non - farm employment slowed down but remained resilient, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in June, emphasizing a data - dependent stance. There is a low probability of an interest rate cut in June, but if economic data weakens, July - September may be the starting point for a 25bp interest rate cut [20][21][22]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Week - long Viewpoints - Analysis of Bond Yields: This week (2025.6.3 - 2025.6.6), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 2.25bp from 1.675% last Friday to 1.6525%. During the week, factors such as trade frictions, central bank policy expectations, and Sino - US phone calls affected the yield fluctuations. In the future, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to oscillate within the range of 1.6% - 1.7%. If the central bank restarts Treasury bond purchases, the short - term interest rates are more likely to decline [12][13][17]. - Analysis of US Treasury Bond Yields: Affected by better - than - expected non - farm data this week (0602 - 0606), the US Treasury bond yield curve rebounded across the board. The Fedwatch shows that the pricing for interest rate cuts this year is less than two times. The US Treasury bond yield may continue to oscillate at a high level due to increased domestic game uncertainty in the US [17]. 2. Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 2.1. Liquidity Tracking - Open Market Operations: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the total net investment in the open market was - 6717 billion yuan [32]. - Interest Rate Analysis: The money market interest rates and the yields of various bonds showed certain changes. For example, the yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and some national development bonds decreased [12][110]. 2.2. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - US Economic Data: In May 2025, the final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.0, the final value of the service PMI was 53.7, and the final value of the composite PMI was 53. New non - farm employment in May increased by 139,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%. The first - time unemployment claim in the week of May 31 increased to 247,000, and the continued unemployment claim in the week of May 24 slightly decreased to 1.904 million [20][21]. - Commodity Price Data: Steel prices declined, LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices fluctuated, and the prices of commodities such as coal, oil, vegetables also showed certain trends [56][57]. 3. Weekly Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1. Primary - Market Issuance Overview - Issuance Scale: From June 2 to June 6, 2025, 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 109.595 billion yuan, including 93.615 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 7.304 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 8.676 billion yuan of new general bonds. The repayment amount was 59.094 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 50.501 billion yuan [68]. - Regional Distribution: Six provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds this week. The top three in terms of issuance amount were Tianjin, Jilin, and Hunan, with issuance amounts of 43.428 billion yuan, 19.938 billion yuan, and 14.2 billion yuan respectively [73]. - Special Refinancing Bonds: Two provinces and municipalities, Tianjin and Jilin, issued local special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 27.701 billion yuan. From January 1 to this week, the national total issuance of such bonds was 1,656.813 billion yuan [74]. - Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 2.465 billion yuan, with Hunan, Fujian, Chongqing, Anhui, and Heilongjiang leading in redemption scale in order [75]. 3.2. Secondary - Market Overview - Trading Volume and Turnover Rate: The current stock of local government bonds is 51.07 trillion yuan, the trading volume is 35.2324 billion yuan, and the turnover rate is 0.69%. The top three provinces with the most active local government bond trading are Sichuan, Shandong, and Guangdong. The top three most - traded local government bond tenors are 10Y, 30Y, and 15Y [86]. - Yield Changes: The yields of local government bonds generally declined this week [90]. 3.3. This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan The issuance plans of local government bonds in Yunnan, Shanxi, Shandong, Liaoning, Hunan, and Henan from June 9 to June 13 are given, but specific data are not detailed in the text [91]. 4. Weekly Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1. Primary - Market Issuance Overview - Overall Issuance: This week, 240 credit bonds (including short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and PPNs) were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 272.106 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 147.525 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 124.581 billion yuan, an increase of 76.681 billion yuan compared with last week [93]. - Sub - category Issuance: Urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of - 9.85 billion yuan; industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 134.431 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bills had a net financing amount of 13.474 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing amount of 104.47 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing amount of - 4.315 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing amount of 16.33 billion yuan, and PPNs had a net financing amount of - 5.378 billion yuan [96][97]. 4.2. Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds showed different changes. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills decreased by 4.74bp, and that of medium - term notes decreased by 6.04bp [105]. 4.3. Secondary - Market Trading Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 424.662 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for each bond type [108]. 4.4. Maturity Yields The maturity yields of national development bonds decreased across the board. The yields of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends, with some decreasing and some fluctuating [110][111][112]. 4.5. Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened, but there were also some narrowing situations [113][114][116]. 4.6. Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [122][125][127]. 4.7. Trading Activity The top five most - traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and this week, the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 245.829 billion yuan [133]. 4.8. Changes in Subject Ratings The subject ratings or outlooks of Xinjiang Zhongtai (Group) Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jing'an Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. were upgraded [136].