Workflow
高盛:中国外汇-贸易紧张缓和后人民币升值倾向

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the China FX and rates markets, with a bias towards CNY appreciation against the USD following trade de-escalation [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a revised 2025 real GDP growth forecast of 4.6% year-on-year, up from 4.0%, driven by stronger-than-expected real export growth [4]. - The USD/CNY forecasts have been adjusted to 7.20/7.10/7.00 over a 3/6/12-month horizon, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the CNY [4]. - The report notes a bear steepener in the yield curve following a 10bp rate cut by the PBOC, with improved growth prospects leading to rising long-end rates [5]. Valuations and Policy Stance - The USD/CNY spot fell below 7.2 in May, indicating a strengthening bias for the CNY [9]. - The report discusses the narrowing of the countercyclical factor to near zero, suggesting a more stable CNY fixing mechanism [10][11]. Technicals - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH remained largely unchanged in May, indicating stable market conditions [21]. - Short-term momentum to buy EUR and sell CNH fell notably in May, reflecting changing investor sentiment [22]. Fundamentals - China's trade balance fell in April due to a lower goods trade surplus, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the economy [34]. - Travel exports in March 2025 were around 151% of 2019 levels, while travel imports rose to approximately 98% of 2019 levels, indicating a recovery in the services sector [36]. Rates - Long-term cash bond yields and NDIRS rates rose in May after a 10bp policy rate cut, reflecting market adjustments to monetary policy [41]. - Front-end rates moved sideways following the rate cut, indicating a stabilization in short-term interest rates [42]. Liquidity and Leverage - The PBOC injected liquidity into the interbank market in May primarily through a 50bp RRR cut, enhancing market liquidity [61]. - Financial leveraging in the bond market rose further in May as interbank repo rates fell, indicating increased market activity [63]. Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 940 billion in May 2025, reflecting an acceleration in bond issuance [69]. - The average CGB auction size increased further in May, signaling a robust demand for government bonds [75].