Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic container logistics, with a strong synergy between domestic and foreign trade, enhancing its profit resilience. The report highlights the potential for significant upward movement in the domestic shipping market, supported by policy-driven infrastructure investment and increased consumer demand [10][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Zhonggu Logistics, is one of the earliest enterprises in China specializing in domestic container shipping, providing comprehensive logistics services through a multi-modal transport network [15][7]. As of December 31, 2024, the company operates 111 vessels with a total capacity of 213,000 TEU, ranking second nationally in container fleet size [18][7]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth from container logistics services, with expected revenues of 12,031 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 6.86% [9]. The projected net profit for 2025 is 1,984 million RMB, with a growth rate of 8.08% [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The domestic container shipping market is currently at a historical low, with significant potential for recovery. The report notes that demand for shipping services is expected to rise due to increased infrastructure investment and consumer spending [10][6]. The foreign trade leasing market is also anticipated to remain robust, particularly in the Asian regional market, driven by trade agreements and shifts in supply chains [10][6]. Profitability and Dividend Policy - The company exhibits strong cash flow and a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend rate reaching 90.39% in 2024, amounting to 1,659 million RMB [48][57]. The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain profitability even during periods of market pressure, showcasing its operational flexibility [10][6]. Investment Outlook - The report projects that the company's net profit will continue to grow steadily, with estimates of 1,984 million RMB for 2025, 2,098 million RMB for 2026, and 2,202 million RMB for 2027, indicating a stable growth trajectory [8][6]. The anticipated price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 10.37, 9.81, and 9.35, respectively, suggesting attractive valuation levels [8][6].
中谷物流(603565):内贸集运物流龙头,内外协同强化盈利韧性