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世纪证券-宏观周报(6月第1周):中美元首通话提振市场情绪-20250609

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a significant increase last week, with a weekly trading volume of 1,208.9 billion CNY, up by 114.9 billion CNY compared to the previous week[12] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.32%[12] - The optimism surrounding US-China negotiations was reignited following a direct phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump, leading to a rapid appreciation of the RMB[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - On June 6, the central bank conducted a 1 trillion CNY reverse repurchase operation, alleviating upward pressure on deposit rates, with the one-year deposit rate falling to approximately 1.67%[2] - The ADP employment figures for May were below expectations, but the non-farm payroll data released later exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in the job market[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September slightly decreased to 50.7%[3] Group 3: Bond Market and Risks - The bond market saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 2 basis points, reflecting a comfortable liquidity environment[13] - The central bank's net withdrawal from the open market was 671.7 billion CNY, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity ahead of upcoming bond maturities[13] - Risks remain from potential deterioration in US-China trade relations and unexpected weakness in economic fundamentals[3]