Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, targeting a price of HK$269.70 from a current price of HK$214.40 [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the ADC industry, with a robust pipeline of 12 self-developed ADC candidates, 7 of which are in clinical development, and aims to become China's equivalent of Daiichi Sankyo [3][8]. - The company has established significant global partnerships, including collaborations with BioNTech and others, with a total transaction value exceeding US$6 billion, enhancing its competitive edge in the ADC market [4][22]. - The management team is highly internationalized and experienced, focusing on unmet clinical needs and demonstrating strong operational efficiency [6][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are estimated at RMB 9.75 billion, RMB 11.7 billion, and RMB 16.1 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be negative in the initial years but improving towards FY27 [7]. - The company utilizes a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, with a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5% [7]. Pipeline and Development - The company has a diverse ADC pipeline targeting various cancers, including DB-1303 (HER2 ADC) and DB-1311 (B7-H3 ADC), with significant clinical progress and potential market opportunities [8][31]. - DB-1303 is expected to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) to the FDA in 2025, with a peak sales potential of US$2 billion, while DB-1311 is also advancing in clinical trials with promising data [31][32]. Strategic Collaborations - The company has formed strategic alliances with major pharmaceutical companies, enhancing its research capabilities and market reach, including a notable partnership with BioNTech for ADC development [22][26]. - The collaborations are expected to accelerate the development of ADC therapies and maximize their global value [24][26]. Management and Expertise - The management team includes industry veterans with extensive experience in drug development and investment, which supports the company's strategic direction and operational efficiency [19][21]. - The company benefits from a scientific advisory board composed of renowned ADC experts, further strengthening its research and development capabilities [20].
映恩生物-B（09606）：首次覆盖：ADC行业领军龙头，有望持续成长为中国“第一三共”