顺鑫农业（000860）：白酒增长承压，业绩低于预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (previously "Buy") due to lower-than-expected performance in Q1 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The company's white liquor business is under pressure, with a decline in gross margin to 45.0%, down 5.22 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margins for high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor are 70.8%, 47.3%, and 39.4% respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous year [5]. - The pork business has significantly reduced losses, with a gross margin increase of 8.37 percentage points year-on-year, indicating successful adjustments in product structure and cost management [5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 9.13 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 231 million yuan, compared to a loss of 296 million yuan in the previous year [7]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.26 billion yuan, down 19.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 282 million yuan, a decrease of 37.3% compared to the same period last year [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 8.02 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 199 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.8% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.27 yuan, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 2.8% [6]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit for 2026 and 2027, with expected growth rates of 27.0% and 33.4% respectively [6].